Rethinking a Long-Held Industry Statistic
It has long been said that 95% of the world’s bourbon comes from Kentucky. This statistic, so far as I can tell, can be traced to the Kentucky Distiller’s Association, who have been repeating it since before I entered the distilling business, more than 15 years ago.
Is that statistic really true? And could it really be the same in 2026 as it was in 2008 when I first started paying attention to bourbon? In that same time frame more than 2000 distilleries have opened around the country, and while Kentucky has seen its own share of great new distilleries that have opened, the overwhelming majority of new distillers are outside of Kentucky. Shouldn't this be changing that well worn statistic?
According to ACSA, there are more than 2200 licensed distillers now, up from maybe two dozen in the 1980s. Nearly all of them have opened in the last 17 years. Could it really be that only 5% of bourbon is made outside of Kentucky after almost two decades of growth in craft whiskey?
Understanding the “Asterisk” Behind the Numbers
First let’s understand one of the big asterisks of the 5% statistic. The KDA is speaking of bourbon, and they apparently exclude Jack Daniel’s which has long positioned itself as Tennessee whiskey while meeting the criteria for bourbon. Jack has been vying with Jim Beam in recent years for the top spot in American whiskey but has lost some ground (its parent company is in merger talks right now). When you talk about Jim Beam or Jack Daniel’s, it can be a little tricky whether you mean the flagship label, the brand universe, or the parent company, which will all deliver different volumes. When last I asked a spokesperson for Jack Daniel’s about the flagship bottle in 2022, Jack was selling 13 million cases which might represent between 20% and 25% of the market. So a pretty big asterisk before we get to other brands outside of Kentucky.
What the Barrel Data Actually Suggests
According to the latest stats from the Kentucky Distillers Association (2023), there are 14.3 million bourbon barrels aging in Kentucky. The Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (often shortened to TTB) collects statistics as part of excise tax filings, and one covers proof gallons in storage, which can easily be extrapolated to 53-gallon barrels (roughly 65 proof gallons per barrel). Those figures at the end of 2023 (to match the timing of the numbers from KDA) show 20 million barrels aging. So there were 5.6 million barrels of American whiskey (bourbon, rye, etc.) aging outside of Kentucky, or 28% of the total.
If Jack is 20-25% of the market, that would put everything else in line with the KDA figure. In fact, if we lump Kentucky bourbon and Tennessee whiskey together, then it’s likely the amount of bourbon and any other style of whiskey made outside of Kentucky is even smaller than 5%, maybe even less than 1%. I often say “the Ohio River Valley” as is a more accurate descriptor of the historic whiskey-making region that spans a geologically similar region running from South-central Tennessee through central Kentucky to southern Indiana. Bourbon, or whiskeys of any kind, made outside of that region is very, very small.
Scale Matters: Column Stills vs Craft Distillation
How can I be so sure? In the Bourbon Drinker’s Companion, I put together this chart of the relative size of the stills of column-distilled legacy and craft brands. This is for distilleries that use a column still and it’s roughly arranged by capacity (there are few newer entries not included):
For the most part, the top row constitutes the legacy distillers, the dozen or so heritage makers of whiskey that have long operated in Kentucky and Tennessee. The middle row is a mix of heritage distillers and new distillers aiming to make whiskey in a very similar size and scale and the bottom row are mostly upstart producers aiming for national volume.
Not pictured are craft distillers like Kings County that use pot stills, but even the very largest of these, like Balcones or Westward (in its post-Diageo era), could barely move the needle relative to anyone on the bottom row. Column stills are much more efficient and capable of producing whiskey continuously, whereas pot stills require a batch process, where one batch must finish before the next begins. So these can only contribute a very small amount to the overall picture, and the numbers where available bear this out.
Visualizing Production Capacity
Let’s look at it again, focusing purely on column diameter as the potential output, as the area of a circle is probably the best visual representation of the difference in production output of a 12” column and a 84” one:
The Boom, the Bubble, and the Correction
This was always somewhat foreshadowed. Five or six years ago, it seemed as though a month didn’t go by without the announcement of a new distillery with annual production of a capacity of a million cases or more, suggesting ambitions of beating the most storied and established brands from the legacy players. And my graphic doesn’t even include brand new distillers with a strong program like Whiskey House, Potter Jane, Augusta Distillery, as well as others that stumbled before they could even begin production and whose bankruptcies are supposed to be illustrative of the bursting bubble. Now many of the distilleries are shutting down, hoping to spend down a glut in aging whiskey that is larger than the market can bear.
Export Dreams and Market Reality
Export markets haven’t been the bright light they promised (even before tariffs and their public relations). Indeed tequila and agave spirits have been growing for Americans more than U.S. whiskeys have grown abroad.
The ambition, or perhaps hubris, has caught up with the industry, at least in Kentucky. While there may be 2000 new distillers, a map of serious capacity shows where this production capability is concentrated more than ever. Many of these stills have already gone dormant as the supply of that interchangeable, column-still Kentucky distillate is saturated.
What's Next For American Whiskey?
I still believe the small distillers (those too small to appear on this map) have lots of opportunity still, and we represent a middle ground of medium-sized craft players that will always be smaller than our column-still peers. But the regional interest in whiskey is just beginning: look at American Single Malt from the pacific northwest, Texas barbecue whiskeys, Mid-Atlantic rye and even Appalachian moonshine. And those small producers in Kentucky may be sitting prettiest of all, offering both the craft and the geographical heritage in one package—so long as they keep their ambitions about quality over quantity.
So, Is Bourbon Still A Kentucky Product?
As demand for bourbon cools off, with Kentucky already sitting on significantly more capacity than the industry ever needed, it will be interesting to see how this all shakes out. With many distillers turning off the stills until the market picks up, it’s anybody’s guess whether that statistic will hold up in the future, but it’s safe to say that Kentucky still makes 95% of the bourbon on shelves in the United States, even as bourbon is now made in all 50 states, a new condition that means that bourbon is an American product, not just a Kentucky one. It is still true that the overwhelming odds are that any randomly selected bottle will still be Kentucky Straight Bourbon Whiskey.
